Estimating Regionalized Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change Over Europe by Performance-Based Weighting of CORDEX Projections

Ensemble projections of future changes in discharge over Europe show large variation. Several methods for performance-based weighting exist that have the potential to increase robustness change signal. Here we use an ensemble three hydrological models forced with climate datasets from Coordinated Downscaling Experiment - European Domain (EURO-CORDEX). The experiment is set-up nine river basins spread hold different and catchment characteristics. We evaluate consistency apply two approaches; Climate model Weighting by Independence Performance (ClimWIP) focuses on meteorological variables Reliability Averaging (REA) our study applied statistics per basin. For a strong signal, Southern Northern Europe, set large. rivers Central differences between become more pronounced. Both approaches assign high weights single General Circulation Models (GCMs). ClimWIP method results mean weighted differ only slightly non-weighted mean. REA influences more, but highly vary basin see obtained through past good performance can provide deviating future. It not apparent GCM signal dominates overall i.e., there no intra consistency. However, both favored same GCM.